In an era defined by geopolitical upheaval and shifting power dynamics, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictability continues to ripple across the global stage. While many Western leaders have expressed concerns over his potential return to the White House, one leader appears to be calculating how to turn this uncertainty into an advantage: China’s President Xi Jinping.
As Trump destabilizes political norms and challenges traditional alliances, Xi sees an opportunity to strengthen China’s global influence, expand economic and military reach, and present Beijing as a more reliable global partner. The growing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies—ranging from trade wars to diplomatic realignments—creates openings that China can exploit strategically.
Trump’s Unpredictability and Its Global Repercussions
Throughout his political career, Trump has exhibited a pattern of disruptive decision-making. His tenure from 2017 to 2021 was marked by abrupt foreign policy shifts, including:
- Trade Wars and Tariffs: Trump’s aggressive stance against China, characterized by high tariffs and economic sanctions, significantly impacted global markets. Yet, instead of crippling China, it pushed Beijing to diversify its economic dependencies and accelerate domestic innovation.
- Strained Alliances: Trump’s skepticism of NATO and his transactional approach to foreign relations weakened traditional U.S. alliances, creating a vacuum that China could fill.
- Unilateral Diplomacy: His unpredictable diplomatic maneuvers—such as engaging in high-profile summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un—often led to confusion among U.S. allies, reinforcing a global perception of American inconsistency.
If Trump were to return to power, these uncertainties could intensify, offering Xi Jinping more room to maneuver on the global stage.
Xi Jinping’s Strategic Openings
Xi Jinping has long pursued a vision of Chinese ascendancy, centered on economic expansion, military modernization, and diplomatic influence. The uncertainty created by Trumpism provides several avenues for Xi to advance his agenda:
1. Positioning China as a Global Stabilizer
Trump’s erratic approach to international relations has allowed China to present itself as a predictable, stable partner. Beijing has increasingly stepped into diplomatic roles that the U.S. once dominated:
- Middle East Mediation: In 2023, China brokered a historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signaling its ambition to be a peacemaker.
- BRICS and Global South Engagement: China has led efforts to expand BRICS, offering emerging economies an alternative to Western-led financial institutions.
- Multilateral Agreements: As Trump has undermined multilateralism, China has championed trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to expand its economic influence.
If Trump returns, his likely withdrawal from global commitments could further bolster China’s image as a responsible global power.
2. Economic Leverage in a Post-American Order
Trump’s trade war against China aimed to curtail its economic rise, but Beijing has adapted by:
- Boosting Self-Reliance: China has accelerated efforts in semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and energy independence to reduce reliance on Western technology.
- Deepening Ties with Europe and the Global South: Amid U.S.-China tensions, Beijing has strengthened economic ties with the EU, Latin America, and Africa through infrastructure investments and trade agreements.
- Exploiting U.S. Isolationism: Trump’s “America First” rhetoric could drive U.S. allies to seek alternatives, giving China greater room to expand its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Rather than weakening China, Trump’s economic policies have inadvertently pushed it toward greater resilience and global integration.
3. Military and Strategic Expansion
With Trump’s historical unpredictability regarding NATO and other defense alliances, Xi could see an opportunity to assert China’s military presence:
- South China Sea: A disengaged or distracted U.S. could embolden Beijing to further solidify control over contested waters.
- Taiwan: If Trump weakens U.S. support for Taiwan, it could encourage China to escalate its military pressure on the island.
- Indo-Pacific Influence: While the U.S. strengthens its alliances with Japan, India, and Australia, any Trump-induced disruption could create cracks for China to exploit.
Xi has already been modernizing China’s military, and any signs of U.S. retreat under Trump would embolden China’s strategic ambitions.
The Biden Factor – A Contrast in Approach
Under President Joe Biden, U.S. policy toward China has been more structured, balancing competition with strategic engagement. Unlike Trump’s erratic approach, Biden has:
- Reinforced U.S. alliances, particularly in Asia and Europe.
- Pushed for coordinated action against China’s trade practices.
- Strengthened economic partnerships like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
If Biden remains in office, China will face a more calculated U.S. foreign policy. However, if Trump returns, his unpredictability could open new doors for Xi to advance China’s long-term vision.
Conclusion: A New Global Reality?
Trump’s unpredictability and America’s political volatility present both risks and opportunities on the world stage. While his policies could create instability, they also grant China a chance to position itself as a more reliable global leader.
For Xi Jinping, Trump’s potential return to power is not just a challenge but an opportunity—one that could accelerate China’s ascent as the dominant global power of the 21st century.