The inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20, 2025, has prompted discussions among analysts and policymakers regarding the potential impact of his administration on Nigeria, particularly concerning President Bola Tinubu’s government. While some experts express cautious optimism about deepening U.S.-Nigeria relations, others advise prudence in managing expectations.
Historically, U.S. foreign policy in Africa has often been influenced by strategic interests, including counterterrorism efforts. In 2017, during his previous tenure, President Trump pledged military assistance to Nigeria to combat terrorism, indicating a willingness to support Nigeria’s security challenges. This precedent suggests that the Tinubu administration might seek to engage the U.S. in bolstering Nigeria’s counterterrorism capabilities.
Economic collaboration is another avenue where both nations could find mutual benefits. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, with duty-free access to the U.S. market for certain goods, is up for renewal. Engaging the U.S. on the extension or enhancement of AGOA could support Nigeria’s export economy. However, it’s essential to recognize that U.S. foreign policy priorities may not place Africa at the forefront, as noted by analysts who observe that Africa has often been a secondary concern in U.S. strategic planning.
One area of concern is President Trump’s stance on immigration. During his campaign, he proposed stringent immigration policies, including the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Such measures could significantly impact the Nigerian diaspora in the U.S., which contributes over $20 billion annually in remittances to Nigeria’s economy. A reduction in this financial inflow could have adverse effects on Nigeria’s economic stability.
Former Nigerian Foreign Minister Bolaji Akinyemi advises that President Tinubu should avoid direct confrontation with President Trump, suggesting a cautious and strategic approach to diplomacy. Akinyemi emphasizes that challenging a more powerful nation without adequate leverage could lead to unfavorable outcomes for Nigeria.
Furthermore, experts highlight the importance of Nigeria articulating and asserting its interests effectively in the global arena. Given that U.S. foreign policy may prioritize nations with significant economic or military strength, Nigeria must proactively engage with the U.S. to ensure its concerns are addressed. This includes leveraging the Nigerian diaspora in the U.S. to advocate for policies beneficial to Nigeria.
While the Trump administration presents potential opportunities for Nigeria in areas like security and economic cooperation, it also poses challenges, particularly concerning immigration policies that could affect the Nigerian diaspora. The Tinubu administration must navigate this complex landscape with a balanced approach, seeking collaboration where possible while safeguarding Nigeria’s national interests. Engaging diplomatically, articulating clear policy positions, and leveraging existing relationships will be crucial in fostering a beneficial U.S.-Nigeria partnership during President Trump’s tenure.